President Biden’s speech on Taliban takeover of Afghanistan (YouTube video dated August 16, 2021)
1. The fall of the US-backed regime is a foregone conclusion. The question is not why American policy has failed again but why Americans do not seem to learn. Anyone who has watched Princess Bride from over three decades ago should remember Vizzini the Sicilian’s profound wisdom, „You fool, you fell victim into one of the classic blunders. The most famous is never get involved in a land war in Asia.“ But now, President Biden promises to focus on fighting China. Hmmm.
2. For small countries or communities, needing help to survive is normal, but to completely depend like a parasite on another for survival means that one does not have an independent right to exist. For those parasitic regimes, heed Dr. Kissinger’s warning, „To be an enemy of America can be dangerous, but to be a friend is fatal.“ When America gets rid of their parasites, they usually do so without compassion or compunction.
3. Why did the 300,000 strong US-armed puppet-army backed by US bombers collapse overnight to a bunch of ragtag goat-herders toting personal weapons with nary a helmet on their head? First of all, the collapse did not happen overnight. I have commented quite a few times in „The Unconquered“ about the fall of empires. Here is a passage describing the conclusion of the decisive Battle of Huai’hai which spelled the beginning of the end for the US-backed Chiang Kai-shek’s rule of China. „The ruling class of China and observers from the West, including the Soviet Union, were never quite convinced that the Chinese Communists could survive let alone succeed. No one could predict that Chiang’s mighty Nationalist army would crumble into dust in the space of just four months. The collapse happened gradually at first and then all at once.“ That’s right, the internal rot that causes the collapse has been happening slowly for a long time. People refuse to see it and will not acknowledge it. They will continue to swim in their warm soup. When the bubble inevitably bursts, it will seem catastrophic and sudden, and people will be surprised. But it’s no surprise to those who notice the slow rot.
4. How did the Taliban win a contest of arms against a modern army? It’s actually very simple. The Taliban is willing to die for what they believe in. The US-backed regime is willing to take American money and go home to their family. They’ll do a Kabuki show for the American military, the American politicians, the American mainstream media, and the American voters, but they’re not prepared to die for any of this charade. If Americans want to die for Afghanistan, let them go ahead and be heroes. The people of Afghanistan just want to live in peace.
5. What does it mean for Taiwan? Read President Biden’s speech carefully. He said, „American troops cannot and should not be fighting in a war, and dying in a war that Afghan forces are not willing to fight for themselves.“ This is now unequivocal and reinforces what I have been saying, that „not a single American will die for Taiwan.“ Let Taiwanese secessionists stop wallowing in their delusions that their faraway Uncle will come charging down the hill to their rescue, and seek pragmatic solutions to their survival by commencing negotiations for reunification with mainland China. Do not wait until next week. Call up Beijing right away and start talking tomorrow. Why the urgency? Read on.
6. I have written blogs about how and when China could unilaterally reunify with Taiwan without bloodshed. Those strategic moments have passed, but I mentioned that there would be others in the future. I suggest that this is now another one of those strategic moments. People all over the world are witnessing in real time how a US-backed government collapses to a few ragtag goat-herders without a fight. Now imagine that Taiwan social media suddenly spread like wildfire the message that PLA soldiers are already inside Taipei. Imagine also that China openly declares that it is unilaterally but peacefully coming to Taiwan to defend its sovereignty, that it will defend Taiwan with Nationalist soldiers against the secessionists and foreign elements. Anyone who impedes or threatens this PLA action will be considered traitors and enemy combatants, and will be eliminated with extreme prejudice by devastating fire-power. The psychological effect of the news from Afghanistan these last few days alone will ensure a peaceful transition. This window of opportunity is however fleeting because the psychological effect of the shock is the strongest shortly after the event but will fade as the news cycle goes back to reporting on Britney Spears. China as a whole of course has many concerns, but as I wrote in earlier blogs, the strategic advantages of a swift and bloodless reunification is great with almost no downside. One of these days, Beijing will act on one of these opportunities, and the sooner they act the better. It is therefore imperative for Taiwan authorities to initiate reunification talks with Beijing immediately, if not before. Peter Man